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Article . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
ZENODO
Article . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
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Diffusion-based data augmentation for short-term multivariate energy prediction in data-scarce scenarios

Authors: Bompai, Stelio; Kontopoulos, Ioannis; Tserpes, Konstantinos;

Diffusion-based data augmentation for short-term multivariate energy prediction in data-scarce scenarios

Abstract

This study explores diffusion-based generative modeling as a data augmentation strategy to improve forecasting in data-scarce scenarios. Using the ETTh1 multivariate energy dataset, we evaluate point and quantile forecasting across multiple forecasting architectures (XGBoost, LSTM, BiLSTM). Synthetic samples are generated via the Diffusion-TS framework for the neural models only, and incorporated at varying synthetic-to-real ratios. Results show that BiLSTM models benefit substantially in point forecasting, achieving up to a 15.3% improvement (i.e., reduction) in RMSE and 8.1% in MAE, and similarly improve quantile accuracy, while LSTM models degrade under all ratios. Bias-variance analysis reveals that diffusion-based augmentation mainly reduces variance at moderate levels but introduces bias when excessive synthetic data are used.

Keywords

Diffusion Models, Time-series Forecasting, Data Augmentation, Synthetic Data Generation

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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Average
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