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Preprint . 2026
License: CC BY
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ZENODO
Preprint . 2026
License: CC BY
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Preprint . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
ZENODO
Preprint . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
ZENODO
Preprint . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
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Escalation Pattern Analysis (EPA): A Trajectory-Based Early Warning Framework for Lethality Risk in Intimate Partner Violence (IPV)

Authors: Kaiser, Robert;

Escalation Pattern Analysis (EPA): A Trajectory-Based Early Warning Framework for Lethality Risk in Intimate Partner Violence (IPV)

Abstract

Escalation Pattern Analysis (EPA) is a trajectory-based early-warning framework developed to address intimate partner violence (IPV). EPA systematically identifies behavioral escalation and convergence patterns that elevate the risk of severe harm, exceeding thresholds for inaction. The framework facilitates anticipatory and preventive decision-making under conditions of uncertainty. Drawing on coercive control theory, feminist criminology, femicide timeline research, danger assessment literature, and intelligence-informed threat assessment, EPA conceptualizes escalation along three dynamic axes: Frequency, Intensity, and Inhibitory Decline. These axes are examined in relation to temporal patterns of change, enabling the identification of behavioral momentum, compression of incidents over time, and diminishing restraint, which may signal an increasing risk of lethality before statutory high-risk markers are evident. This paper introduces EPA as a staged framework. Stage 1 establishes its conceptual foundations and theoretical coherence. Stage 2 positions EPA as an early-warning, trajectory-based analytic model, demonstrating how escalation manifests through patterned behavioral change. Five applied scenarios illustrate diverse escalation pathways, including coercive control, stalking, financial entrapment, and sexualized violence, highlighting that lethality risk can develop even in the absence of frequent or overt physical assaults. EPA is not intended as a predictive instrument, but rather as a translational framework to support structured professional judgment, early intervention, and multi-agency safeguarding. By emphasizing trajectory, momentum, and loss of inhibition, EPA addresses key limitations of incident-based assessments and provides a foundation for future operational testing and empirical validation.

Keywords

Gender-Based Violence/psychology, Domestic Violence/prevention & control, coercive control, Intimate Partner Violence, Homicide/prevention & control, FOS: Law, Gender-Based Violence, Criminology, Risk Assessment, Forensic Psychology, Intimate Partner Violence/psychology, victimology, Escalation Pattern Analysis, lethality assessment, Violence/prevention & control, Honor-Based Violence/prevention & control, Ethnic Violence/prevention & control, Gender-Based Violence/prevention & control, Exposure to Violence/prevention & control, Risk assessment, Honor-Based Violence/prevention & control, Intimate Partner Violence/prevention & control, Domestic Violence/prevention & control, Homicide/prevention & control, Ethnic Violence/prevention & control, Crime Victims/psychology, Exposure to Violence/prevention & control, femicide prevention, threat assessment, FOS: Other medical sciences, Gender-Based Violence/prevention & control, violence prevention, Violence/prevention & control, Behavioral Sciences, Intimate Partner Violence/prevention & control, femicide

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Green