Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
https://doi.org/10.2...arrow_drop_down
https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.6...
Article . 2026 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
ZENODO
Preprint . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
ZENODO
Preprint . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
versions View all 3 versions
addClaim

LEVENT: Lifetime Estimation via Efficiency-regime Event Transitions

Authors: DUMAN, BÜLENT;

LEVENT: Lifetime Estimation via Efficiency-regime Event Transitions

Abstract

<div> <div> <p>LEVENT is defined as a deterministic estimator that resets at regime transitions and decays based on transition strength (governed by efficiency and stability via sigmoid-gated function), providing a forward-looking bar-count measure of structural viability conditional on efficiency-regime states.</p> <p>Financial time series analysis traditionally treats time as a homogeneous, continuous dimension. We challenge this assumption by identifying a "Previously Overlooked Dimension in Technical Analysis: Structural Remaining Lifetime": while classical indicators measure displacement (RSI) or magnitude (ATR), none estimate the Remaining Structural Useful Life (RUL) of a price formation process. LEVENT fills this missing dimension by converting efficiency-regime events into a forward-looking lifetime estimate via a distinctive "jump-and-countdown" dynamic.</p> <p>Empirical validation across Equities (AAPL), Crypto (BTC), and FX (EURUSD) demonstrates that LEVENT provides statistically significant incremental information (+0.46% R²) gain and exhibits constructive orthogonality (Pearson ρ ≈ 0.56 with its input proxy). These results establish LEVENT not as a refined indicator, but as a previously unmeasured structural observable complementing DERYA’s state measurement.</p> </div> </div>

Keywords

market microstructure, efficiency-regime transitions, time-to-failure, OHLC data, financial time series, regime switching, regime-dependent lifetime, structural lifetime

  • BIP!
    Impact byBIP!
    selected citations
    These citations are derived from selected sources.
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    0
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Upload OA version
Are you the author of this publication? Upload your Open Access version to Zenodo!
It’s fast and easy, just two clicks!