
Title: Ringdown Overtones as a Candidate Signature for Tension-Mediated Hawking Radiation: A Blind Prediction Validation Description / Abstract: We propose that Hawking radiation and the Theory of Cosmic Architecture (ToCA) are fundamentally unified through the tension minimization principle. By identifying the imaginary action with integrated tension ($S_I = \kappa \int D dt$), we suggest that Hawking radiation acts as the inevitable mechanism for resolving frozen tension gradients in black hole horizons. This paper presents a scaling hypothesis whereby gravitational wave ringdown overtones serve as a proxy for near-horizon tension relaxation. Using a strict calibration set of pre-2024 merger events only (GW150914, GW170814, GW190521), we perform a blind prediction test for the recent high-SNR event GW250114 ($M_f \approx 73 M_\odot$). Key Results: The blind prediction ($D_{floor} = 0.139 \pm 0.017$) is confirmed by observational data proxies ($D_{obs} = 0.210 \pm 0.050$) within 1.35σ. This successful blind test supports the hypothesis that ringdown residuals encode the Hawking temperature scaling ($T_H \propto M^{-1}$). Pre-Registration: To ensure methodological rigor and falsifiability, this document formally locks predictions for future LIGO O4 events based on the un-updated pre-2024 model. These predictions serve as a pre-registered hypothesis test for the ongoing observing run.
Black Hole Mergers, Hawking Radiation, Gravitational Waves, LIGO, Ringdown, ToCA, Quantum Gravity, Complex Action Theory, Blind Prediction.
Black Hole Mergers, Hawking Radiation, Gravitational Waves, LIGO, Ringdown, ToCA, Quantum Gravity, Complex Action Theory, Blind Prediction.
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