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image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
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The Hot Potato Effect Within a Single Tick: Evidence from NASDAQ ITCH Order Book Data

Authors: rodriguez mera, david; jat, pankaj; patel, bhavik;

The Hot Potato Effect Within a Single Tick: Evidence from NASDAQ ITCH Order Book Data

Abstract

This paper documents and analyzes a canonical instance of the hot potato effect occurring within a single price tick in a Central Limit Order Book (CLOB), using high-frequency NASDAQ ITCH order book data. While hot potato–type inventory handoffs are well known to market practitioners and central to many high-frequency trading strategies, they are difficult to identify unambiguously in real data due to aggregation, anonymization, and the prevalence of common order sizes. The core contribution of this study is the identification of a mechanically generated odd-lot residual (107 shares) that allows the fill–flip sequence to be traced causally at the queue level. We show how a passive limit order is partially filled as a result of FIFO queue depletion, generating a residual odd-lot position that is immediately neutralized via a market order of the exact same size. The unusual quantity and tight temporal proximity make alternative explanations—such as independent order placement—economically implausible, allowing for high-confidence identification of the same reacting agent. Building on this empirical sequence, the paper links the observed behavior to a stylized hot potato framework within a single-tick CLOB, using an A–B–C–D agent labeling and drawing on classical dealer inventory models (Ho–Stoll; Glosten–Milgrom). The resulting analysis highlights how rapid role switching between liquidity provision and liquidity taking can generate volume without directional conviction, and why such mechanisms are largely invisible in aggregated market data. The findings have implications for the empirical study of toxic flow, execution quality, and best execution, and illustrate how practitioner-informed modeling can bridge the gap between microstructural intuition and observable market data.

Keywords

Market microstructure, Limit order book, High-frequency trading (HFT), hft, itch nasdaq

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
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