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Simulation Horizons, Constraints, and the Emergence of Strategic Agency

Authors: Kemple, Kurtis;

Simulation Horizons, Constraints, and the Emergence of Strategic Agency

Abstract

This essay proposes a boundary condition for when "optimization" becomes strategy. Many systems respond to local gradients (migration, adjustment, reflex-like control). Strategic behavior—incurring present cost to reshape future payoffs—appears only when an agent can simulate counterfactual futures far enough ahead and has sufficient control authority to act on those simulations. We formalize this with a constrained horizon model: thermodynamic and organizational overhead bound the effective planning horizon, while actuator limits and structural controllability bound intervention capacity. In this framing, equilibrium is less a timeless fixed point than a temporarily stabilized trajectory of a constrained feedback system, which can persist for long periods yet collapse abruptly when horizons shorten or constraints bind. The goal is not to "prove" a single theory of agency, but to make the domain of validity of game-theoretic explanations explicit—especially in regimes (crises, panics, coordination breakdowns) where game theory is often invoked precisely as the system exits the strategic regime.

Keywords

game theory, thermodynamics, model predictive control, agency, reflexivity, bounded rationality, constraints, control theory, simulation horizon

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average