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ZENODO
Other literature type . 2015
License: CC BY
Data sources: ZENODO
ZENODO
Other literature type . 2015
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
ZENODO
Other literature type . 2015
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
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CTDBN-Based Financial Markets Analysis and Differential Predictions

Authors: Mitra, Subhadip;

CTDBN-Based Financial Markets Analysis and Differential Predictions

Abstract

This paper introduces the Coupled Temporal Deep Belief Network (CTDBN), a novel architecture for financial market prediction with three principal theoretical contributions. First, we develop a sparse coupling learning algorithm with provable recovery guarantees: under a market incoherence condition, our group-lasso formulation recovers the true cross-market dependency structure with high probability. Second, we introduce regime-aware coupling that models time-varying dependency strength through a hidden Markov layer, enabling automatic detection of crisis periods when markets become tightly coupled. We prove that the associated EM algorithm converges to a stationary point of the marginal likelihood. Third, we derive a variational lower bound for inference in coupled temporal models and prove that the mean-field approximation achieves a multiplicative (1-ε) factor of the true likelihood under bounded coupling strength. The framework integrates four data channels: market indices, economic indicators, social media sentiment via convolutional networks over financial word embeddings, and video news features. Experiments on S&P 500, FTSE 100, Nikkei 225, and major currency pairs demonstrate 64.7% directional accuracy (11% improvement over baselines), with the regime-switching component providing additional 3.2% gains during the 2011 European debt crisis period. The sparse coupling algorithm identifies economically meaningful lead-lag relationships, recovering known patterns such as the S&P 500 leading European indices.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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