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Preprint . 2025
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
ZENODO
Preprint . 2025
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
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The Incompatibility of Probabilistic Inference and Authority: Why AI Systems That Guess Cannot Be Trusted With Decisions

Authors: Gough, Timothy M.;

The Incompatibility of Probabilistic Inference and Authority: Why AI Systems That Guess Cannot Be Trusted With Decisions

Abstract

Modern artificial intelligence systems increasingly operate in roles with real-world consequences, yet most are built on probabilistic inference. This paper advances a structural claim: probabilistic inference and execution authority are incompatible by design. Systems optimized to estimate likelihoods cannot reliably enforce permission, refusal, or fail-closed behavior, all of which are required for legitimate decision authority in high-consequence environments. The paper demonstrates why commonly proposed remedies—such as increased model scale, improved data quality, explainability, monitoring, and audits—cannot resolve this incompatibility, as they operate after execution rather than governing whether execution should occur. It argues that trustworthy AI systems require deterministic, pre-execution governance that enforces explicit, rule-governed state transitions. This work focuses on logical necessity rather than implementation detail and establishes a system-level foundation for accountability, safety, and control in AI decision systems.

Keywords

Artificial intelligence, Artificial Intelligence/ethics, Systems Theory, ai safety, Fail-Closed Systems, computer science, Artificial Intelligence/standards, ethical ai, Deterministic Systems, DAIOS, AI Accountability, Decision Authority, deterministic, AI authority, Artificial Intelligence/history, kernel, Artificial Intelligence, Artificial Intelligence/classification, Artificial Intelligence Governance, Systems theory, Probabilistic Inference, Execution Control, Ethics in AI

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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