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Preprint . 2025
License: CC BY
Data sources: ZENODO
https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5...
Article . 2026 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
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Preprint . 2025
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
ZENODO
Preprint . 2025
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
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Tiered Risk Preferences under Environmental Phase Transitions: A Game-Theoretic Framework for Regime-Switching Agents

Authors: Anderson, Datorien;

Tiered Risk Preferences under Environmental Phase Transitions: A Game-Theoretic Framework for Regime-Switching Agents

Abstract

We introduce a hierarchical framework for modeling agent risk preferences in environments exhibiting nonlinear payoff structures, stochastic amplification, and regime-dependent inversions between conservative and speculative returns. Unlike classical risk models that assume static utility functions, our framework characterizes agents by their sensitivity to environmental potential—a state variable governing phase transitions between linear and convex return regimes. We define ten agent tiers ranging from stability seekers to chaos maximizers, each implementing distinct switching policies. Our main theoretical contribution establishes that a hysteresis-based switching strategy (Tier 7) achieves strictly superior long-run wealth accumulation compared to both conservative and hyper-aggressive strategies in oscillating environments. This result provides a formal foundation for understanding optimal timing in regime-switching decision problems and has applications in algorithmic trading, evolutionary game theory, and multi-agent systems under environmental uncertainty.

Keywords

Stochastic Processes, Regime Switching, Game Theory, Nonlinear Dynamics, Hysteresis, Decision-Making Under Uncertainty, Mathematical physics, Complex Systems, Adaptive Agents, Stochastic Environments, Phase Transitions, Phase Transition

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Green