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ZENODO
Preprint . 2025
License: CC BY
Data sources: ZENODO
ZENODO
Preprint . 2025
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
ZENODO
Preprint . 2025
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
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TALENT LLM: Multi-Label Talent Prediction in Children Using Fine-Tuned Large Language Models with Calibrated Baselines

Authors: Sergeev, Dmitriy;

TALENT LLM: Multi-Label Talent Prediction in Children Using Fine-Tuned Large Language Models with Calibrated Baselines

Abstract

We present TALENT LLM, a system for multi-label talent prediction in children based on artifact analysis. Using a dataset of 5,173 analyses across 479 children (both synthetic and real platform users), we compare fine-tuned LLM predictions against calibrated classical baselines (Logistic Regression, LightGBM) across 7 talent categories. Our experiments demonstrate exceptional baseline performance (ROC-AUC 0.991–0.999, F1-macro 0.973–0.997) with effective probability calibration via Platt scaling, achieving ECE as low as 0.002. We introduce temporal evaluation (S1→S2 prediction) on 349 children with 2+ analyses, achieving F1-macro 0.833 for predicting future talent profiles from earlier assessments. The dataset includes 306 fine-grained talent categories and 8 artifact types (text, image, musical, audio, video, PDF, and others). SHAP analysis reveals interpretable feature importance patterns strongly aligned with educational theory.

Keywords

LLM, machine learning, benchmark, children, educational AI, calibration, talent prediction, multi-label classification

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Green