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Do Interest Rate Changes Effect Small Business Lending in India and South Africa?

Authors: Panshul Gupta;

Do Interest Rate Changes Effect Small Business Lending in India and South Africa?

Abstract

In this paper, we examine the extent to which small business lending responds to the changes in interest rates in India and South Africa, focusing specifically on the monetary transmission mechanism through bank lending. By utilising a panel dataset of commercial banks in both countries from 2010 to 2022, we estimate fixed effects regressions in order to identify the sensitivity of lending to policy rate shifts. Our analysis incorporates bank-specific characteristics, macroeconomic controls, and the interactions with monetary policy, in order to capture the heterogeneity in responses to lending. Our findings show that there are many differences in financial market structures, regulatory environments, and the credibility of central banks, given that we see how SME lending is significantly more sensitive to interest rate changes in South Africa than in India. We see that the lending for Indian SMEs appears to be less elastic, given that there is a combination of both, government-backed lending schemes and a large public-sector bank dominance. These results illustrate that there is an importance of having an institutional context in observing the effectiveness of monetary policy and also highlights the need for very specific, targeted policy interventions to improve SME credit access, especially in emerging markets.

Keywords

Small Business Lending, Monetary Policy, SME, India, South Africa, Emerging Markets, Bank Credit Allocation

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
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