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Report . 2025
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
ZENODO
Report . 2025
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
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Value of Lost Load (VOLL): Literature Review and Adoption Pathways for Alaska

Authors: Mathur Bhagat, Shivani; Chukwu, Okwuchukwu; Colt, Steve; Holdmann, Gwen;

Value of Lost Load (VOLL): Literature Review and Adoption Pathways for Alaska

Abstract

This report supports the Railbelt Reliability Council (RRC) in estimating the Value of Lost Load (VoLL)in Alaska and integrating it into the Integrated Resource Plan. VoLL ($/MWh) represents the valuecustomers place on reliable electricity and reflects how much they are willing to pay to avoid outages (orthe amount they would accept as compensation to endure an outage). Integrating VoLL into planning canhelp the RRC evaluate the costs and benefits of reliability-focused transmission investments and assess theeconomic impacts of short, targeted outages such as those caused by underfrequency load shedding. The Alaska Center for Energy and Power (ACEP) examined theoretical and empirical VoLL estimationapproaches used nationally and internationally, including in islanded and remote communities. Globally,four main approaches emerged: (1) survey-based methods that directly capture customers’ willingness topay (WTP); (2) revealed preference methods based on observed behavior; (3) macroeconomic models thatrelate output or GDP to electricity use; and (4) case studies that analyze real-world outage impacts.Crucially, the literature consistently reports that there is no universal VoLL: estimates vary widely bymethodology, customer class, outage characteristics, backup availability, and local context. Thus, a rangeof VoLL estimates should be used to capture the customer mix, outage durations, and event types beingevaluated for reliability planning and market design—particularly in Alaska due to its harsh climate, limitedgrid redundancy, seasonal economy, unique customer mix, and high curtailment exposure. ACEP surveyed three commercial and industrial (C&I) customers in Fairbanks in September 2025. Thesesurveys served to field test an Alaska-adapted version of the survey questions that underlie the ICE 2.0model and provided insights into businesses’ outage tolerance, operational impacts, and economic losses.Though limited in scope, these surveys provided initial VoLLs for C&I customers in Alaska, suggestingpronounced variation in outage tolerance and cost sensitivity. Outage tolerance declined sharply withduration and even short interruptions could be disruptive, particularly for businesses relying on electricheating or sensitive equipment. Per-MWh VoLL estimates declined with outage length, consistent withnational studies, except when infrastructure damage increased losses. These early findings illustrate howcustomer characteristics influence outage costs in Alaska and highlight the need for regionallyrepresentative data to refine VoLL estimates for the Railbelt.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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