
This report supports the Railbelt Reliability Council (RRC) in estimating the Value of Lost Load (VoLL)in Alaska and integrating it into the Integrated Resource Plan. VoLL ($/MWh) represents the valuecustomers place on reliable electricity and reflects how much they are willing to pay to avoid outages (orthe amount they would accept as compensation to endure an outage). Integrating VoLL into planning canhelp the RRC evaluate the costs and benefits of reliability-focused transmission investments and assess theeconomic impacts of short, targeted outages such as those caused by underfrequency load shedding. The Alaska Center for Energy and Power (ACEP) examined theoretical and empirical VoLL estimationapproaches used nationally and internationally, including in islanded and remote communities. Globally,four main approaches emerged: (1) survey-based methods that directly capture customers’ willingness topay (WTP); (2) revealed preference methods based on observed behavior; (3) macroeconomic models thatrelate output or GDP to electricity use; and (4) case studies that analyze real-world outage impacts.Crucially, the literature consistently reports that there is no universal VoLL: estimates vary widely bymethodology, customer class, outage characteristics, backup availability, and local context. Thus, a rangeof VoLL estimates should be used to capture the customer mix, outage durations, and event types beingevaluated for reliability planning and market design—particularly in Alaska due to its harsh climate, limitedgrid redundancy, seasonal economy, unique customer mix, and high curtailment exposure. ACEP surveyed three commercial and industrial (C&I) customers in Fairbanks in September 2025. Thesesurveys served to field test an Alaska-adapted version of the survey questions that underlie the ICE 2.0model and provided insights into businesses’ outage tolerance, operational impacts, and economic losses.Though limited in scope, these surveys provided initial VoLLs for C&I customers in Alaska, suggestingpronounced variation in outage tolerance and cost sensitivity. Outage tolerance declined sharply withduration and even short interruptions could be disruptive, particularly for businesses relying on electricheating or sensitive equipment. Per-MWh VoLL estimates declined with outage length, consistent withnational studies, except when infrastructure damage increased losses. These early findings illustrate howcustomer characteristics influence outage costs in Alaska and highlight the need for regionallyrepresentative data to refine VoLL estimates for the Railbelt.
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