This dataset includes all code used for the simulation models, as well as the scripts for generating figures and performing data analyses. Each file provides additional details on its specific purpose and usage. 0-figure1.jl generates the graphical analyses shown in Figure 1. 1-Sim_data_for_figure3.jl runs the simulations used for Figure 3. 1-HPC_sim_data_for_figure3_bash.sh is the HPC batch-submission script (Unix environment). It launches 1-Sim_data_for_figure3.jl for 100 simulation runs with varying parameter values. 2-figure3.jl produces Figure 3 from the simulation outputs. These data can be generated by the scripts above or loaded directly from the data/ directory. 3-figure4.jl generates Figure 4a using the corresponding simulated data. 4-figure4b_EmpiricalAnalysis_Adler_eachsite.R and 4-figure4c_EmpiricalAnalysis_Fraser_eachsite.R generate Figures 4b and 4c using the two global empirical datasets stored in data/. PNR_model.jl contains the simulation model for the simple guilds described in Section 2 of the paper and is called by the scripts used to generate Figure 1.