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Article . 2025
License: CC BY
Data sources: ZENODO
ZENODO
Article . 2025
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
ZENODO
Article . 2025
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
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Análisis del Riesgo Crediticio de Entidades Financieras Ecuatorianas: Un Enfoque Descriptivo y Predictivo Integrado con Machine Learning y Business Intelligence.

Authors: Pando Farez, Johanna Maribel;

Análisis del Riesgo Crediticio de Entidades Financieras Ecuatorianas: Un Enfoque Descriptivo y Predictivo Integrado con Machine Learning y Business Intelligence.

Abstract

La gestión del riesgo crediticio es clave para la estabilidad financiera, sobre todo en economías donde el acceso al crédito impulsa el crecimiento. Este estudio mejora la evaluación del riesgo crediticio en instituciones financieras ecuatorianas mediante la integración de Machine Learning (ML), Inteligencia Artificial Explicable (XAI) y Business Intelligence (BI). Con datos reales de carácter financiero y demográfico, se entrenaron los algoritmos Random Forest y XGBoost para predecir la probabilidad de incumplimiento. El modelo Random Forest obtuvo los mejores resultados (ROC-AUC = 0.916; PR-AUC = 0.998), con alta precisión incluso ante datos desbalanceados. Los valores SHAP explicaron la influencia de cada variable, destacando la exposición total, el plazo del crédito y el historial crediticio como los factores más determinantes. Los paneles interactivos creados en Tableau transformaron los resultados analíticos en información útil para la toma de decisiones, facilitando la detección temprana de clientes en riesgo y una respuesta más ágil. Este enfoque integrado fortalece la transparencia, promueve una gestión proactiva y mejora la gobernanza en las carteras de crédito. El marco propuesto puede aplicarse en otras entidades que busquen decisiones más justas y basadas en datos.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average