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https://doi.org/10.64898/2026....
Article . 2026 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
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Phylogenetic inference from an incomplete fossil record

Authors: Hohmann, Niklas; Warnock, Rachel; Jarochowska, Emilia;

Phylogenetic inference from an incomplete fossil record

Abstract

Abstract Fossil data is crucial to construct phylogenetic time trees, which serve as the basis to test a wide range of evolutionary hypotheses. While the fossil record is known to be incomplete, modern stratigraphy provides predictions of the structure of the fossil record as expressed by gap location and duration. Advances in phylogenetic model development allow us to propagate this information into Bayesian phylogenetic inference in the form of priors on time-variable fossil sampling. However, the impact and role of stratigraphic architectures on time tree inference has so far remained unexplored. We introduce a novel simulation framework that combines realistic stratigraphic forward models with phylogenetic simulations. Using this framework, we examine (1) how stratigraphically plausible model violations of fossil sampling due to gaps affect total-evidence inference under the fossilized birth-death model and (2) if stratigraphic knowledge on gap duration and timing improves inference when incorporated in priors on fossil sampling. We find that total-evidence analysis is robust to stratigraphically plausible distribution of gaps in disparate stratigraphic architectures, with results being instead dominated by the number of morphological characters. Surprisingly, incorporating information on prominent gaps in the stratigraphic record does not improve phylogenetic inference. Our results suggest that phylogenetic inference is robust to model violations introduced by stratigraphic gaps over short timescales, with results being dominated by a priori known data availability constraints such as morphological character matrix size. This research establishes the foundations for joint modeling of phylogenetic and stratigraphic processes and narrows the knowledge gap between paleontology, stratigraphy, and neontology.

Related Organizations
Keywords

Palaeobiology, Stratigraphy, Paleontology, Geology, FOS: Earth and related environmental sciences, Phylogeny

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
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Average
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