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Preprint . 2025
License: CC BY NC ND
Data sources: ZENODO
ZENODO
Preprint . 2025
License: CC BY NC ND
Data sources: Datacite
ZENODO
Preprint . 2025
License: CC BY NC ND
Data sources: Datacite
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Irreversible Transitions – A Structural Model of Climate Tipping Cascades and Their Systemic Consequences

Authors: Karl Jochen, Heinz;

Irreversible Transitions – A Structural Model of Climate Tipping Cascades and Their Systemic Consequences

Abstract

This paper presents a structural framework for understanding climate tipping points not as isolated events, but as interconnected nodes within a system of potential cascading transitions. Rather than providing a quantitative model, it offers a qualitative architecture of systemic thresholds, mutual amplification, and irreversible shifts. By conceptualizing tipping elements as components in a dynamic resonance structure, the framework reveals how critical transitions can propagate through feedback networks—affecting climate, ecosystems, and socio-economic systems alike. The aim is not to introduce new empirical data, but to illuminate the deeper systemic logic of fragility and non-linearity within the Earth system. This perspective addresses a key gap in the current climate discourse: the lack of integrative conceptual models that make visible the structural vulnerability of complex systems under pressure. The paper also explores the implications of delayed intervention—and why classical mitigation strategies may fall short if cascading dynamics and feedback entanglements are not sufficiently considered. Diese Arbeit stellt ein strukturtheoretisches Rahmenmodell vor, um Klimakipppunkte nicht als isolierte Ereignisse, sondern als miteinander verbundene Knoten innerhalb eines Systems potenzieller Kaskadenübergänge zu verstehen. Anstelle eines quantitativen Modells bietet sie eine qualitative Architektur systemischer Schwellenwerte, gegenseitiger Verstärkung und irreversibler Veränderungen. Indem Kipppunkte als Bestandteile einer dynamischen Resonanzstruktur betrachtet werden, zeigt das Modell, wie sich kritische Übergänge über Rückkopplungsnetzwerke ausbreiten können – mit Auswirkungen auf Klima, Ökosysteme und sozioökonomische Systeme gleichermaßen. Das Ziel ist nicht die Präsentation neuer empirischer Daten, sondern die Erhellung der tieferliegenden systemischen Logik von Fragilität und Nichtlinearität im Erdsystem. Dieser Ansatz adressiert eine zentrale Lücke im aktuellen Klimadiskurs: das Fehlen integrativer konzeptueller Modelle, die die strukturelle Verwundbarkeit komplexer Systeme unter Druck sichtbar machen. Die Arbeit beleuchtet außerdem die Folgen verspäteten Handelns – und warum klassische Minderungsstrategien möglicherweise scheitern, wenn Kaskadendynamiken und Rückkopplungsverschachtelungen nicht ausreichend berücksichtigt werden.

Keywords

Feedback Loops, Systemic Risk, Resilience, Nonlinear Dynamics, Climate Change, Cascade Effects, Irreversible Transitions, Earth System, Climate Tipping Points, Structural Model

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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