In this study, we assess the drivers and determinants of human-elephant conflict (HEC) in Namibia using a rigorously-vetted dataset that tracks conflict events from 2004-2020 across Namibia’s communal conservancies. We use fixed-effects and random-effects regressions to identify causal relationships of weather, vegetation greenness, population and land cover change on HEC and model these out through the end of the century. Additionally, we employ a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) approach to predict the probability of HEC across northern Namibia and identify the spatial patterns of HEC. Regression Analysis HEC_Regressions:Dataset Prep ├── regression_script0_input├── regression_script0_output├── regression_script1_input├── regression_script1_output├── regression_script2_input├── regression_script2_output├── regression_script3_input├── regression_script3_output├── regression_script4_input├── regression_script4_output├── regression_script5_input├── regression_script5_output├── regression_script6_input Maxent All data and code for the MaxEnt modeling of human-elephant conflict (HEC) is organized in the following structure. Data includes shapefiles (.shp), rasters (.tif), CSVs (.csv), and RData files (.rda). The code (`maxent/scripts/`) is organized in Quarto markdown documents (.qmd) that can be run to reproduce the analysis. maxent/├── data/│ ├── inputs/│ │ ├── background_sampling/│ │ │ ├── all_namib_cons_grid_mask/ # Mask (.shp) used for bg sampling│ │ │ ├── hec_occurrences_p/ # HEC occurrences (.shp) used for bg sampling│ │ │ ├── hec_reporting_communal_conservancies_ext/ # Extent (.shp) used for bg sampling│ │ │ ├── hec_sznyr_ratios_updated/ # HEC ratios (.csv) used for bg sampling│ │ │ ├── regression_csv/ # Regression data (.csv) used for bg sampling│ │ ├── chen_future_LC/│ │ │ ├── Chen_LC_percent_cover/│ │ │ │ ├── ssp126/ # Chen LC (% cover) projections under ssp126 (.tif)│ │ │ │ ├── ssp245/ # Chen LC (% cover) projections under ssp245 (.tif)│ │ │ │ ├── ssp370/ # Chen LC (% cover) projections under ssp370 (.tif)│ │ │ │ ├── ssp585/ # Chen LC (% cover) projections under ssp585 (.tif)│ │ │ ├── Global_PFT_projections/ # Raw global PFT projections from Chen et al., 2022│ │ ├── environmental_data_extraction/│ │ │ ├── distance_rasters/ # Distance to core areas, rivers, fences, and roads (.tif)│ │ │ ├── dry_szn/ # Dry season pr, tas, EVI, SPEI (.tif)│ │ │ ├── land_cover/ # % built, cropland, grassland, shrub, tree, water (.tif)│ │ │ ├── pop_density/ # Population density (.tif)│ │ │ ├── terrain/ # Elevation, slope, aspect (.tif)│ │ │ ├── wet_szn/ # Wet season pr, tas, EVI, SPEI (.tif)│ │ ├── hec_occurrences/│ │ │ └── indv_crop_raiding_centroids/ # HEC occurrences (.shp) used for MaxEnt modeling│ │ ├── prediction_rasters/│ │ │ ├── baseline_2020_with_spei/│ │ │ │ ├── dry_szn/ # 2020 dry season predictor variables (.tif)│ │ │ │ └── wet_szn/ # 2020 wet season predictor variables (.tif)│ │ │ └── future/│ │ │ ├── dry_szn/│ │ │ │ ├── 2025/│ │ │ │ │ ├── ssp126/ # 2025 dry season, ssp126 predictor variables (.tif)│ │ │ │ │ ├── ssp245/ # 2025 dry season, ssp245 predictor variables (.tif)│ │ │ │ │ ├── ssp370/ # 2025 dry season, ssp370 predictor variables (.tif)│ │ │ │ │ └── ssp585/ # 2025 dry season, ssp585 predictor variables (.tif)│ │ │ │ ├── 2055/│ │ │ │ │ ├── ssp126/ # 2055 dry season, ssp126 predictor variables (.tif)│ │ │ │ │ ├── ssp245/ # 2055 dry season, ssp245 predictor variables (.tif)│ │ │ │ │ ├── ssp370/ # 2055 dry season, ssp370 predictor variables (.tif)│ │ │ │ │ └── ssp585/ # 2055 dry season, ssp585 predictor variables (.tif)│ │ │ │ └── 2085/│ │ │ │ ├── ssp126/ # 2085 dry season, ssp126 predictor variables (.tif)│ │ │ │ ├── ssp245/ # 2085 dry season, ssp245 predictor variables (.tif)│ │ │ │ ├── ssp370/ # 2085 dry season, ssp370 predictor variables (.tif)│ │ │ │ └── ssp585/ # 2085 dry season, ssp585 predictor variables (.tif)│ │ │ └── wet_szn/│ │ │ ├── 2025/│ │ │ │ ├── ssp126/ # 2025 wet season, ssp126 predictor variables (.tif)│ │ │ │ ├── ssp245/ # 2025 wet season, ssp245 predictor variables (.tif)│ │ │ │ ├── ssp370/ # 2025 wet season, ssp370 predictor variables (.tif)│ │ │ │ └── ssp585/ # 2025 wet season, ssp585 predictor variables (.tif)│ │ │ ├── 2055/│ │ │ │ ├── ssp126/ # 2055 wet season, ssp126 predictor variables (.tif)│ │ │ │ ├── ssp245/ # 2055 wet season, ssp245 predictor variables (.tif)│ │ │ │ ├── ssp370/ # 2055 wet season, ssp370 predictor variables (.tif)│ │ │ │ └── ssp585/ # 2055 wet season, ssp585 predictor variables (.tif)│ │ │ └── 2085/│ │ │ ├── ssp126/ # 2085 wet season, ssp126 predictor variables (.tif)│ │ │ ├── ssp245/ # 2085 wet season, ssp245 predictor variables (.tif)│ │ │ ├── ssp370/ # 2085 wet season, ssp370 predictor variables (.tif)│ │ │ └── ssp585/ # 2085 wet season, ssp585 predictor variables (.tif)│ ├── intermediate/│ │ ├── background_points/│ │ │ ├── bg_points_extracted_crop_maxent # Bg points (.csv & .shp) w/ env data extracted│ │ │ └── hec_sznyr_bg_points # Bg points (.csv & .shp) w/o env data extracted│ │ └── extracted_hec_occ_sznyr_crop/│ │ └── hec_occ_points_extracted_crop_maxent # HEC occurrences (.csv & .shp) w/ env data extracted│ ├── outputs/│ │ ├── ENMevaluation/│ │ │ ├── dry_szn/│ │ │ │ └── max_eval_dry_4-23-25.rda # ENMevaluation object for dry szn CR MaxEnt model│ │ │ └── wet_szn/│ │ │ └── max_eval_wet_4-23-25.rda # ENMevaluation object for wet szn CR MaxEnt model│ │ ├── maxent_model_objects/│ │ │ ├── dry_szn/│ │ │ │ └── maxent_cropConf_dryszn_sdm.rda # MaxEnt model object for dry szn CR HEC│ │ │ └── wet_szn/│ │ │ └── maxent_cropConf_wetszn_sdm.rda # MaxEnt model object for wet szn CR HEC│ │ └── maxent_predictions/│ │ ├── baseline/│ │ │ ├── dry_szn/ # Continuous HEC predictions (.tif) in 2020 dry szn│ │ │ └── wet_szn/ # Continuous HEC predictions (.tif) in 2020 wet szn│ │ └── future/│ │ ├── dry_szn/│ │ │ └── continuous_predictions/ # Continuous future dry szn predictions (.tif)│ │ └── wet_szn/│ │ ├── binary_predictions/ # Binary future wet szn predictions (.tif)│ │ ├── continuous_predictions/ # Continuous future wet szn predictions (.tif)│ │ └── difference_maps/│ │ ├── binary/ # Binary difference maps (.tif): 2025 vs 2055, 2085│ │ ├── continuous/ # Continuous difference maps (.tif): 2025 vs 2055, 2085│ │ └── persistent_hotspots/ # Persistent hotspot/coldspot maps (.tif)├── scripts/│ ├── 01_maxent_extract_occ_env_data_CR.qmd # Extract env data to HEC occurrences│ ├── 02_maxent_generate_bg_points_CR.qmd # Generate bg points│ ├── 03_maxent_extract_bg_env_data_CR.qmd # Extract env data to bg points│ ├── 04_maxent_predictions_CR.qmd # Model evaluation, run MaxEnt, make predictions│ ├── 05_maxent_prediction_plotting_CR.qmd # Plot binary/continuous predictions│ └── maxent_pred_env_data_prep_CR.qmd # Prepare env data for predictions