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AI/ML in Finance: How a Lightweight Neural Network Forecasts NVDA’s Next Stock Price Move

Authors: Kota, Prakash;

AI/ML in Finance: How a Lightweight Neural Network Forecasts NVDA’s Next Stock Price Move

Abstract

This document is a working paper published for early dissemination and public access via Zenodo. It has not undergone formal peer review. The content reflects the author's original technical work, insights, and applied use of machine learning in real-world domains. This version is archived for academic and professional visibility and may be updated in the future based on community feedback or further development. The content was originally published as a technical article on https://prakashkota.com on April 9, 2005, and has been reformatted into this working paper for citation and archival purposes. Abstract This article presents a hands-on case study demonstrating the application of a lightweight neural network to forecast NVIDIA's (NVDA) next-day stock closing prices. Utilizing five years of historical data (2020–2024) and focusing on five key features—Open, High, Low, Close, and Volume—the model aims to predict the subsequent day's closing price. The study highlights the model's performance, noting a high correlation (R² = 0.9978) on training data and a reasonable correlation (R² = 0.8173) on unseen data. While acknowledging the model's limitations in accounting for unforeseen market events, the article underscores the potential of simple neural network architectures in providing valuable insights into stock price movements.

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Keywords

Neural Networks, Time Series Forecasting, AI in Finance, Trading Algorithms, Financial Data Science, Market Prediction, Stock Price Prediction, Financial Machine Learning, Real-Time Forecasting, Lightweight ML Models, Predictive Analytics, NVDA Stock Forecast, Supervised Learning, Quantitative Modeling, Applied AI in Finance

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
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Average
Green