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ZENODO
Preprint . 2025
License: CC BY
Data sources: ZENODO
ZENODO
Preprint . 2025
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
ZENODO
Preprint . 2025
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
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Enhanced Mathematical Framework for Predicting Seismic Calm as a Volcanic Eruption Precursor: An Integrated Approach

Authors: Chairetakis, Michail; Joachim, Nestor; Varkas, Elias;

Enhanced Mathematical Framework for Predicting Seismic Calm as a Volcanic Eruption Precursor: An Integrated Approach

Abstract

Seismic calm preceding volcanic eruptions is a critical predictive signal observedacross diverse volcanic systems. This study introduces an enhanced mathematicalframework to quantify its duration, integrating advanced magma flow dynamics, gasemissions, seismic attenuation, and ground deformation with non-linear correctionsand probabilistic analysis. Validated against five eruptions—Pinatubo (1991), Eyjafjallaj¨okull (2010), Santorini (pre-1650 BC), Kilauea (2018), and Etna (2021)—theframework achieves unprecedented precision, supported by comprehensive sensitivityanalysis, real-time implementation strategies, and visual comparisons with existingmodels. This integrated approach establishes a cutting-edge tool for volcanic hazardassessment and prediction, surpassing prior methodologies.

Keywords

Volcanic area, Volcanic Eruptions/history, Volcanic Eruptions, Volcanic eruption, Volcanic Eruptions/analysis, Volcanic Eruptions/classification

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Green