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Plea for Statistical Modeling in Mountain Socio-Economic Development

Authors: Mihai Covaci; Brindusa Covaci;

Plea for Statistical Modeling in Mountain Socio-Economic Development

Abstract

The paper is a plea in favor of statistical quantitative analyzes in the modeling of the mountain economic development. The arguments in favor of the use of statistics in the modeling of mountain businesses reside in the need to map the present to establish future trends. The future is built through constructs, and abstractions made only conceptually intuitively - without quantitative data validation - can ensure sustainability or failure in predicting the trends of the current society. Science and reality in the 21st century are metamorphosing more rapidly and chaotically than until now, especially against the background of the insertion of new technologies in contemporary society, the dynamics of various phenomena being difficult to predict without applicative substantiation. As a model, the paper presents statistical analyzes and econometric models carried out at the European and national level for mountain entrepreneurship in the EU, related to the supporting sectors of mountain agriculture, respectively industry, services, and the quaternary sector. The authors of the study carried out the analysis for the indicators Population of active enterprises in t - number, Establishments of enterprises in t - number, Dissolutions of enterprises in t - number, Newly established enterprises in t-3 that survived until t - number. The indicators presented, analyzed for the period 2008-2018, and forecasted for the period 2019-2026, integrate the mountain business environment into the considerable development of the demographics of European businesses. The results of the paper demonstrate the importance of using statistical analyzes and econometric models in establishing the reality and forecasting mountain economic phenomena. Specific to the European business environment, the results of the paper present a general picture favorable to mountain entrepreneurship.

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Keywords

Probability and Statistics, Computer Science and Mathematics

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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