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Simulating the potential role of media coverage and infected bats in the 2014 Ebola outbreak

Authors: Li, Qiang; Lu, Furong; Dai, Chenxi; Fan, Minjun; Wang, Weiming; Wang, Kaifa;

Simulating the potential role of media coverage and infected bats in the 2014 Ebola outbreak

Abstract

(Uploaded by Plazi for the Bat Literature Project) Multiple epidemiological models have been developed to model the transmission dynamics of Ebola virus (EBOV) disease in West Africa in 2014 because the severity of the epidemic is commonly overestimated. A compartmental model that incorporates the media impact and the effect of infected bats was constructed and calibrated using data reported until the end of 2014. The final cumulative number of deaths and confirmed cases were estimated to be 1.0921×104 (95% CI 9.7706×103–1.2072×104) and 1.5193×104 (95% CI 1.3593×104–1.6795×104), respectively. The epidemic was estimated to end on June 2015, which was similar to the data reported by the World Health Organization. A sensitivity analysis indicated that an increase of either the media impact or the number of infectious bats that are captured daily can increase the cumulative number of confirmed cases/deaths. Of the considered epidemiological parameters, only the media coverage can significantly reduce both the peak time and the value of the cumulative confirmed cases/deaths. Thus, we propose 'the cumulative confirmed cases and deaths' as another media mechanism. In conclusion, the media impact contributed to the control of the 2014 Ebola outbreak, and infectious bats may be a potential source of the epidemic.

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Keywords

Epidemiology, Mathematical sociology (including anthropology), bats, bat, Models, Biological, Disease Outbreaks, Infected bats, Media impact, infected bats, Chiroptera, Animals, Humans, Animalia, Mass Media, Chordata, mathematical modeling, media impact, Biodiversity, Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola, 2014 West African Ebola virus outbreak, Africa, Western, Mammalia, Mathematical modeling

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
8
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
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