Assessing the impacts of changing environmental conditions on animal species requires a thorough understanding of population dynamics, which can be difficult to estimate when animals aggregate into spatially discrete subpopulations. We used 39 years of fecundity, capture-recapture, and abundance data in an integrated metapopulation model to study environmental drivers of demography in a declining migratory bird, the Greenland white-fronted goose (Anser albifrons flavirostris). We found that low fecundity due to earlier spring vegetation phenology on staging areas and increased snow on breeding areas explained metapopulation decline, though the strength of these effects varied by subpopulation. Differential immigration and emigration rates affected local wintering abundance trends, highlighting the importance of quantifying subpopulation-metapopulation dynamics for understanding fragmented animal populations. We provide a framework for extending commonly used integrated population models to a metapopulation framework for testing novel ecological hypotheses about how changing environmental conditions within and among subpopulations can drive changes in animal abundance.

Funding provided by: National Parks and Wildlife ServiceROR ID: https://ror.org/03xkf7525Award Number: Funding provided by: Ducks Unlimited CanadaROR ID: https://ror.org/04p45sn64Award Number: Funding provided by: Ducks UnlimitedROR ID: https://ror.org/01kdv5654Award Number: Funding provided by: Ducks Unlimited CanadaROR ID: https://ror.org/04p45sn64Award Number: Funding provided by: University of MissouriROR ID: https://ror.org/02ymw8z06Award Number: Funding provided by: University of SaskatchewanROR ID: https://ror.org/010x8gc63Award Number: