Dataset and model code accompanying manuscript: Ehrnsten, E. Humborg C., Gustafsson, E. and Gustafsson B. G. 2024. Disaster avoided: current state of the Baltic Sea without human intervention to reduce nutrient loads. Resubmitted to Limnology & Oceanography Letters 2024-09-13. This repository contains the following files: 1_Data_description.pdf Description of data sets and details on model forcing and data collection methods. Eutrophication_indicators1970-2021_BALTSEM_and_observations.xlsx Eutrophication indicators in the Baltic Sea: BALTSEM model simulation output from real load and no reduction scenarios as well as observations 1970-2021. BALTSEM_output_future_1970-2100.xlsx BALTSEM model simulation output 1970-2021 with observed nutrient loads (Real loads scenario) and statistics of 100 model runs 2022-2100 with present (2021) nutrient loads. The 100 runs represent statistical variations in forcing and boundary conditions to account for uncertainty in future weather and sea level conditions. NPloads_BS_M_C.xlsx Nitrogen and phosphorus loads from the Baltic Sea, Mississippi and Changjiang catchments 1950-2021 collected from several published sources. baltsem9.5_carbon.tar.gz Copressed folder with model code for BALTSEM 9.5 as well as forcing data used in the simulations. Information on folder contents and a user guide to run the model simuations can be found in the file BALTSEMGettingStartedCarbon.pdf