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Global hotspots and correlates of emerging zoonotic diseases

Authors: Allen, Toph; Murray, Kris A.; Zambrana-Torrelio, Carlos; Morse, Stephen S.; Rondinini, Carlo; Di Marco, Moreno; Breit, Nathan; +2 Authors

Global hotspots and correlates of emerging zoonotic diseases

Abstract

AbstractZoonoses originating from wildlife represent a significant threat to global health, security and economic growth, and combatting their emergence is a public health priority. However, our understanding of the mechanisms underlying their emergence remains rudimentary. Here we update a global database of emerging infectious disease (EID) events, create a novel measure of reporting effort, and fit boosted regression tree models to analyze the demographic, environmental and biological correlates of their occurrence. After accounting for reporting effort, we show that zoonotic EID risk is elevated in forested tropical regions experiencing land-use changes and where wildlife biodiversity (mammal species richness) is high. We present a new global hotspot map of spatial variation in our zoonotic EID risk index, and partial dependence plots illustrating relationships between events and predictors. Our results may help to improve surveillance and long-term EID monitoring programs, and design field experiments to test underlying mechanisms of zoonotic disease emergence.

Countries
Australia, Italy, United Kingdom
Keywords

Drivers, bat, Forests, Global Health, Communicable Diseases, Emerging, Zoonoses, Chiroptera, Boosted Regression Trees, 3100 Physics and Astronomy, Chordata, Pathogen Transmission, Ecology, Geography, Q, Biodiversity, 1600 Chemistry, chemistry (all); biochemistry, genetics and molecular biology (all); physics and astronomy (all), FOS: Sociology, Area Under Curve, Mammalia, Regression Analysis, Risk, 570, Human Infectious-Diseases, 1300 Biochemistry, Species Distribution Models, Science, bats, Absence Data, Genetics and Molecular Biology, Animals, Wild, Emergence, 333, Article, MD Multidisciplinary, Animals, Humans, Animalia, Demography, Disease Reservoirs, Tropical Climate, Models, Theoretical, Land-Use Change

  • BIP!
    Impact byBIP!
    selected citations
    These citations are derived from selected sources.
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    838
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 0.01%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 1%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 0.1%
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
838
Top 0.01%
Top 1%
Top 0.1%
Green
gold