
Read the README file! Summary of activity: A dice-rolling game, simulating 6 causes of loss (i.e. possible hazards) and how dependency affects the chance of loss exceeding a threshold. Why is the training important: In short, because diversification is the basis of all (re)insurance, and correlation (a.k.a. dependency) destroys diversification. So, it’s fundamental. If we get dependency wrong, we mis-estimate risk, mis-price risk etc …. Key themes: Raising awareness of dependency (e.g. between hazards, lines of business, peril-regions) What is it? Why does it matter in my day job? The main metrics – Annual average loss (AAL) and 1-in-200 year return period losses. With limited events (observed or simulated), how do we cautiously interpret simulation modelling? Level & Audience: Introductory level, for the widest audience. No equations! For relatively new starters in the field of catastrophe risk management, or PhD students studying compound or multi-hazard risk. It can also serve as a reminder to those experienced in modelling dependency. Duration: ~1h of effort.
Co-occurring hazards, Insurance, Natural hazard, Risk correlation, Dependency, compound risk
Co-occurring hazards, Insurance, Natural hazard, Risk correlation, Dependency, compound risk
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