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From Assessment Ex Post To Ex Ante Estimates: Risks Analysis Of Agricultural Development Projects In Algeria

Authors: W.Hanafi*1 & S. Bedrani2;

From Assessment Ex Post To Ex Ante Estimates: Risks Analysis Of Agricultural Development Projects In Algeria

Abstract

Today, investors want a larger visibility on the validity of time limits and on potential financial losses. The study concerns the risk analysis of agricultural projects. On a sample of project achieving enterprises working in wilayas belonging to three zones: mountain, steppe and desert, a qualitative analysis made to assess the severity of the causes of risks and a quantitative analysis made on several simulations during the achievement of the project by random edition ( type Monte Carlo simulation leading to cumulated probability distributions, it will result a classification of potential risks and an assessment of contingency reserves for risks ( time limits, cost ) for parts of works of the project. These results highlight the importance of the risk analysis in the full success of the project management

Keywords

: Agricultural project risk, Monte Carlo, classification of risks, contingency reserves., : Agricultural project risk, Monte Carlo, classification of risks, contingency reserves.

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popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
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influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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