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Possibilistic Aggregations In The Investment Decision Making

Authors: I. Khutsishvili; G. Sirbiladze; B. Ghvaberidze;

Possibilistic Aggregations In The Investment Decision Making

Abstract

{"references": ["R. E. Bellman and L. A. Zadeh, \"Decision-Making in a Fuzzy\nEnvironment\", Management Science, 17(4), 1970, B-141-B-164.", "D. Dubois and H. Prade, Possibility Theory: An Approach to\nComputerized Processing of Uncertainty. New-York: Plenum Press,\n1988.", "M. Ehrgott, Multicriteria optimization, 2nd ed. Berlin Heidelberg:\nSpringer, 2005.", "A.Taha Hamdy, Operations Research: An Introduction, (9th Edition).\nUpper Saddle River, N.J.: Pearson/Prentice Hall, 2011.", "G. J. Klir and M. J. Wierman, Uncertainty-Based Information. Elements\nof Generalized Information Theory. Second edition. Studies in Fuzziness\nand Soft Computing, Physica-Verlag, Heidelberg, 1999.", "I. Khutsishvili, \"The Combined Decision Making Technology based on\nthe Statistical and Fuzzy Analysis and its Application in Forecast's\nModeling\", WSEAS Transactions on Systems, 8(7), 2009, 891-901.", "I. Khutsishvili and G. Sirbiladze, \"Decision Support's Precising\nTechnology in the Investment Project Risk Management\", In\nProceedings of the 11th WSEAS International Conference on Automatic\nControl, Modelling and Simulation (ACMOS '09), Istanbul, Turkey,\n2009, 303-311.", "B. Liu, \"Toward fuzzy optimization without mathematical ambiquity\",\nFuzzy Optimization and Decision Making, 1(1), 2002, 43-63.", "J. M. Merig\u00f3, \"Probabilities in the OWA operator\", Expert Systems with\nApplications, 39, 2012, 11456-11467.\n[10] J. M, Merig\u00f3, \"Fuzzy Multi-Person Decision Making with Fuzzy\nProbabilistic Aggregation Operators\", Int. Journal of Fuzzy Systems, 13,\n2011,163-174.\n[11] J. M. Merig\u00f3, \"Probabilistic Decision Making with the OWA Operator\nand its Application in Investment Management\", In Proceedings of the\nConference European Society for Fuzzy Logic and Technology \u2013\nEUSFLAT, Lisbon, Portugal, 2009, 1364-1369.\n[12] D. Ruan, J. Kacprzyk and M. Fedrizzi, Soft Computing for Risk\nEvaluation and Management: Applications in Technology, Environmenf\nand Finance. Studies in Fuzziness and Soft Computing. Heidelberg, New\nYork: Physica-Verlag, 2001.\n[13] G. Sirbiladze, A. Sikharulidze and G. Korakhashvili, \"Decision-making\nAiding Fuzzy Informational Systems in Investments. Part I \u2013\nDiscrimination Analysis in Investment Projects\", Proceedings of\nIv.Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University. Applied Mathematics and\nComputer Sciences, 353 (22-23), 2003, 77-94.\n[14] G. Sirbiladze and T. Gachechiladze, \"Restored fuzzy measures in expert\ndecision-making\", Information Sciences, 169 (1/2), 2005, 71-95.\n[15] G. Sirbiladze and A. Sikharulidze, \"Weighted Fuzzy Averages in Fuzzy\nEnvironment, Parts I, II\", International Journal of Uncertainty,\nFuzziness and Knowledge-Based Systems, 11(2), 2003, 139-157, 159-\n172.\n[16] Sirbiladze, G., Ghvaberidze, B., Latsabidze, T., and Matsaberidze, B.,\nUsing a minimal fuzzy covering in decision-making problems.\nInformation Sciences, 179 (12), 2009, 2022-2027.\n[17] G. Sirbiladze, I. Khutsisvili and P. Dvalishvili, \"Decision Precising\nFuzzy Technology to Evaluate the Credit Risks of Investment Projects\",\nIEEE 10-th International Conference on Intelligent Systems Desigh and\nApplications (ISDA 2010), Cairo, Egypt, 2010, 103-108.\n[18] G.Sirbiladze, I. Khutsishvili and B. Ghvaberidze, \"Multistage decisionmaking\nfuzzy methodology for optimal investments based on experts'\nevaluations\", European Journal of Operational Research, 232(1), 2014,\n169\u2013177.\n[19] G. Sirbiladze, A. Sikharulidze, B. Ghvaberidze and B. Matsaberidze,\n\"Fuzzy-probabilistic Aggregations in the Discrete Covering Problem\",\nInternational Journal of General Systems, 40: 2, 2011, 169 -196.\n[20] G. Sirbiladze, Extremal Fuzzy Dynamic Systems: Theory and\nApplications, IFSR International Series on Systems Science and\nEngineering, Vol. 28, 1st Edition. 2013, Springer, 396p.\n[21] V. Torra, \"The weighted OWA operator\", Int. Journal of Intelligent\nSystems, 12, 1997, 153-166.\n[22] D. Wu, Y. Zhang, D. Wu and D. L. Olson, \"Fuzzy multi-objective\nprogramming for supplier selection and risk modeling: A possibility\napproach\", European Journal of Operational Research, 200(3), 2010,\n774-787.\n[23] R. R. Yager, \"On Ordered Weighted Averaging aggregation operators in\nmulticriteria decision making\", IEEE Trans. On Systems, Man and\nCybernetics B, 18, 1988, 183-190.\n[24] R. R. Yager, \"On the Evalution of Uncertain Courses of Action\", Fuzzy\nOptimization and Decision Making, 1(1), 2002, 13-41.\n[25] R. R. Yager, J. Kacprzyk and G. Beliakov, Recent Development in the\nordered Weighted Averaging Operations: Theory and Practice. Studies\nin Fuzziness and Soft Computing, 265, 2011, Berlin: Springer-Verlag.\n[26] R.R. Yager, \"Level sets for membership evaluation of fuzzy subsets\".\nIn: Fuzzy Sets and Possibility Theory: Recent Developments (R.R.\nYager, ed.), Pergamon Press, Oxford, 1982, 90-97."]}

This work proposes a fuzzy methodology to support the investment decisions. While choosing among competitive investment projects, the methodology makes ranking of projects using the new aggregation OWA operator – AsPOWA, presented in the environment of possibility uncertainty. For numerical evaluation of the weighting vector associated with the AsPOWA operator the mathematical programming problem is constructed. On the basis of the AsPOWA operator the projects’ group ranking maximum criteria is constructed. The methodology also allows making the most profitable investments into several of the project using the method developed by the authors for discrete possibilistic bicriteria problems. The article provides an example of the investment decision-making that explains the work of the proposed methodology.

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Keywords

Expert evaluations, investment decision making, possibility uncertainty., OWA operator

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