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Comparing Random Forests and Multinomial Logit Models for Urban Travel Mode Choice Under Innovative Traffic Management Strategies

Authors: Konstantinou, Christos; Mantouka, Eleni; Giouroukelis, Marios; Vlahogianni, Eleni;

Comparing Random Forests and Multinomial Logit Models for Urban Travel Mode Choice Under Innovative Traffic Management Strategies

Abstract

Abstract This study explores the factors affecting travel mode choices upon the implementation of two innovative Traffic Management Strategies in an urban setting, namely a Transit Signal Priority system and a Congestion Pricing scheme. To gather the necessary data, a stated preferences survey was conducted in three major European cities: Athens (Greece), Lisbon (Portugal), and Manchester (United Kingdom), aimed at the elicitation of individuals’ preferences when selecting travel modes. The collected data from each city were used to develop and calibrate multiple mode choice models, including econometric Discrete Choice (DC) models such as the Multinomial Logit (MNL), as well as state-of-the-art Machine Learning models like the Random Forest (RF) classifiers. Through the evaluation and comparison of the models’ results, we present an analysis of the factors influencing mode choice and we highlight the similarities and differences in the performance and interpretation of parametric and non-parametric models. The findings from this study can inform the development of sustainable transportation systems and contribute to more efficient decision-making processes in urban mobility management.

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    popularity
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    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Green
hybrid