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Credit Spread Changes And Volatility Spillover Effects

Authors: Thomas I. Kounitis;

Credit Spread Changes And Volatility Spillover Effects

Abstract

{"references": ["Y. Baba, R. Engle, D. Kraft, and K. Kroner, \"Multivariate simultaneous\ngeneralized ARCH,\" Mimeo, Department of Economics, University of\nCalifornia, San Diego, 1990.", "H. Bierens, J. Huang, and W. Kong, \"An econometric model of credit\nspreads with rebalancing, ARCH and jump effects,\" Working paper,\nPenn State University, 2003.", "F. Black, and M. Scholes, \"The pricing of options and corporate\nliabilities,\" Journal of Political Economy, vol. 81, pp. 637-654, 1973.", "T. Bollerslev, and J. Wooldridge, \"Quasi-maximum likelihood\nestimation and inference in dynamic models with time-varying\ncovariances,\" Econometric Reviews, vol. 11, pp. 143-172, 1992.", "C. Broyden, \"A class of methods for solving nonlinear simultaneous\nequations,\" Mathematics of Computation, vol. 19, pp. 577-593, 1965.", "C. Broyden, \"Quasi-Newton methods and their application to function\nminimisation,\" Mathematics of Computation, vol. 21, pp. 368-381, 1967.", "J. Campbell, and G. Taksler, \"Equity volatility and corporate bond\nyields,\" Journal of Finance, vol. 58, pp. 2321-2349, 2003.", "R.-R. Chen, and L. Scott, \"Maximum likelihood estimation for a\nmultifactor equilibrium model of the term structure of interest rates,\"\nJournal of Fixed Income, vol. 3, pp. 14-31, 1993.", "P. Collin-Dufresne, R. Goldstein, and S. Martin, \"The determinants of\ncredit spread changes,\" Journal of Finance, vol. 56, pp. 2177-2207,\n2001.\n[10] M. Cremers, J. Driessen, P. Maenhout and D. Weinbaum, \"Individual\nstock-option prices and credit spreads,\" Working paper, Yale School of\nManagement, 2005.\n[11] G. Delianedis, and R. Geske, \"The components of corporate credit\nspreads: Default, recovery, tax, jumps, liquidity, and market factors,\"\nWorking paper, The Anderson School at UCLA, 2001.\n[12] G. Duffee, \"The relation between Treasury yields and corporate bond\nyield spreads,\" Journal of Finance, vol. 53, pp. 2225-2241, 1998.\n[13] G. Elliott, T. Rothenberg, and J. Stock, \"Efficient tests for an\nautoregressive unit root,\" Econometrica, vol. 64, pp. 813-836, 1996.\n[14] E. Elton, M. Gruber, D. Agrawal, and C. Mann, \"Explaining the rate\nspread on corporate bonds,\" Journal of Finance, vol. 56, pp. 247-277,\n2001.\n[15] R. Engle, and K. Kroner, \"Multivariate simultaneous generalised\nARCH,\" Econometric Theory, vol. 11, pp. 122-150, 1995.\n[16] Y. Eom, J. Helwege, and J.-Z. Huang, \"Structural models of corporate\nbond pricing: An empirical analysis,\" The Review of Financial Studies,\nvol. 17, pp. 499-544, 2004.\n[17] T. Flavin, and M. Limosani, \"Fiscal, monetary policy and the conditional\nrisk premium in short-term interest rate differentials: An application of\nTobin's portfolio theory,\" International Review of Economics &\nFinance, vol. 16, pp. 101-112, 2007.\n[18] R. Fletcher, and M. Powell, \"A rapidly convergent descent method for\nminimization,\" Computer Journal, vol. 7, pp. 149-154, 1963.\n[19] J. Huang, and M. Huang, \"How much of the corporate-Treasury yield\nspread is due to credit risk?,\" Working paper, Stanford University, 2003.\n[20] J. Huang, and W. Kong, \"Explaining credit spread changes: Some new\nevidence from option-adjusted spreads of bond indexes,\" Working\npaper, Pennsylvania State University, 2003.\n[21] R. Jarrow, D. Lando, and S. Turnbull, \"A Markov model for the term\nstructure of credit risk spreads,\" The Review of Financial Studies, vol.\n10, pp. 481-523, 1997.\n[22] R. Jarrow, and S. Turnbull, \"Pricing derivatives on financial securities\nsubject to credit risk,\" Journal of Finance, vol. 50, pp. 53-85, 1995.\n[23] S. Kwan, \"Firm-specific information and the correlation between\nindividual stocks and bonds,\" Journal of Financial Economics, vol. 40,\npp. 63-80, 1996.\n[24] D. Kwiatkowski, P. Phillips, P. Schmidt, and Y. Shin, \"Testing the null\nhypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root,\" Journal\nof Econometrics, vol. 54, pp. 159-178, 1992.\n[25] R. Litterman, and J. Scheinkman, \"Common factors affecting bond\nreturns,\" Journal of Fixed Income, vol. 1, pp. 54-61, 1991.\n[26] F. Longstaff, and E. Schwartz, \"A simple approach to valuing risky fixed\nand floating rate debt,\" Journal of Finance, vol. 50, pp. 789-819, 1995.\n[27] R. Merton, \"On the pricing of corporate debt: The risk structure of\ninterest rates,\" Journal of Finance, vol. 29, pp. 449-470, 1974.\n[28] E. Zivot, and D. Andrews, \"Further evidence on the great crash, the oilprice\nshock, and the unit-root hypothesis,\" Journal of Business &\nEconomic Statistics, vol. 10, pp. 251-270, 1992."]}

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the influence of a number of variables on the conditional mean and conditional variance of credit spread changes. The empirical analysis in this paper is conducted within the context of bivariate GARCH-in- Mean models, using the so-called BEKK parameterization. We show that credit spread changes are determined by interest-rate and equityreturn variables, which is in line with theory as provided by the structural models of default. We also identify the credit spread change volatility as an important determinant of credit spread changes, and provide evidence on the transmission of volatility between the variables under study.

Keywords

Credit spread changes, structural framework, GARCH-in-Mean models, volatility transmission.

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This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
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