In this paper we analyze the MPI-only version of the CloverLeaf code from the SPEChpc 2021 benchmark suite on recent Intel Xeon "Ice Lake" and "Sapphire Rapids" server CPUs. We observe peculiar breakdowns in performance when the number of processes is prime. Investigating this effect, we create first-principles data traffic models for each of the stencil-like hotspot loops. With application measurements and microbenchmarks to study memory data traffic behavior, we can connect the breakdowns to SpecI2M, a new write-allocate evasion feature in current Intel CPUs. For serial and full-node cases we are able to predict the memory data volume analytically with an error of a few percent. We find that if the number of processes is prime, SpecI2M fails to work properly, which we can attribute to short inner loops emerging from the one-dimensional domain decomposition in this case. We can also rule out other possible causes of the prime number effect, such as breaking layer conditions, MPI communication overhead, and load imbalance.