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Hotspot movement of compound events on the Europe continent

Authors: Doshi, Smit Chetan; Lohmann, Gerrit; Ionita, Monica;

Hotspot movement of compound events on the Europe continent

Abstract

AbstractClimate indices are often used as a climate monitoring tool, allowing us to understand how the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme weather events are changing over time. Here, based on complex statistical analysis we identify highly correlated significant pairs of compound events at the highest spatial resolution, on a monthly temporal scale across Europe. Continental-scale monthly analysis unleashes information on compound events such as high-risk zones, hotspots, monthly shifts of hotspots and trends, risk exposure to land cover and population, and identification of maximum increasing trends. While there are many studies on single or compound climate extremes there are only a few studies that addresses the relationship between pairs of hazards, the incorporation of bioclimatic indices, the determination of a grid best-fit copula approach, and the outlining relevance of this work of compound event risks with exposures. In this respect, here, using 27-bivariate and 10-trivariate copula models, we show that the different hazard pairs have high combined risks of indices related to radiation, temperature, evapotranspiration, bioclimatic-based indices, such as the universal thermal climate index, wind chill index, and heat index, mainly over the northern and eastern European countries. Furthermore, we show that over the last 7 decades, agricultural and coastal areas are highly exposed to the risks of defined hotspots of compound events. In some of the hotspots of compound events-identified by clusters, there is no monthly shifts of hotspots, leading to higher impacts when compounded. Future work needs to integrate the framework and process to identify other compound pairs.

Country
Germany
Keywords

Science, climate indices, Q, R, compound event, Article, Europe, Sen's slope, Medicine, hotspot, trend analysis, Mann-Kendall, risk

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    popularity
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    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
5
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
Green
hybrid