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Revista Venezolana de Gerencia
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Estimación de la brecha del producto: una revisión de desarrollos recientes y aplicación

Authors: Cristian Colther;

Estimación de la brecha del producto: una revisión de desarrollos recientes y aplicación

Abstract

Este trabajo tiene por objetivo revisar dos nuevas herramientas que pueden ser utilizadas para obtener el output gap a través de desagregar la componente ciclo-tendencia del PIB. Se han evaluado el filtro de Hamilton (2018) y la transformada wavelet, comparando sus resultados respecto de los métodos tradicionales utilizados para estimar el output gap. Para este ejercicio se han aplicado los diferentes métodos a una serie simulada y luego una aplicación empírica al caso de Estados Unidos en el período 1957-2021. De las principales conclusiones de este trabajo, se puede mencionar las importantes diferencias en cuanto a las componentes cíclicas que se puede obtener por los diferentes métodos, que llama a la precaución por parte de los analistas en cuanto a considerar sólo un determinado método y el riesgo de cometer importantes errores de estimación. El análisis wavelet muestra gran versatilidad en cuanto a desagregar una serie temporal en componentes que pueden ser de gran utilidad para estudiar el output gap y otras componentes de interés, por lo que se recomienda profundizar en su uso en el ámbito del análisis macroeconómico.

Keywords

HF1-6182, filtrado de series temporales, HF5001-6182, Commerce, ciclo de desviaciones a la tendencia, análisis wavelet;, Business, brecha del producto

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selected citations
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This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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