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Stated Preference Analysis of Route Choice Behavior and Financial Feasibility for Toll Road Development: Malang-Kepanjen Corridor Case Study

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Authors: Wicaksono, Achmad; Wardani, Lila Kurnia; Arifin, Muhammad Zainul; Imjai, Thanongsak; Rachman, Andi Imam Arief; Permadi, Alvin Aditya; Agitha, Soraya Ayu; +1 Authors

doi: 10.5109/7440053

Stated Preference Analysis of Route Choice Behavior and Financial Feasibility for Toll Road Development: Malang-Kepanjen Corridor Case Study

Abstract

This study integrates route-choice behavior and financial feasibility analysis for the Malang-Kepanjen Toll Road. Stated Preference surveys of 100 respondents reveal a toll equilibrium tariff of IDR 9,800 and a time acceptance threshold of -25 minutes (R²=0.873). These parameters establish three traffic scenarios: pessimistic (236 veh/hr), moderate (351 veh/hr), and optimistic (456 veh/hr). Financial analysis over a 20-year concession shows only the optimistic scenario is viable (B/C Ratio=1.238). This integrated framework addresses a methodological gap in Indonesian infrastructure planning and improves investment reliability for secondary city corridors.

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