output from 'lethal' and 'sublethal' modelsThis Zip archive contains 14 netCDF files with the output from the lethal, sublethal, and age-at-maturity models. All file names indicate the time period ['contemp' = 1980-2000; 'future' = 2080-2100], variables ([survival' = embryo survival (percent decimal) 'growth' = population growth (lizards/year), 'maturity' = age at maturity (days), 'minmaxtemp' = minimum and maximum daily temperatures(°C)], and whether the output is from the 'lethal' or 'sublethal' model as described in the manuscript (or in the case of the age-at-maturity model, whether it includes the effect of slowed juvenile growth).Carloetal_EcolLett_model_output.zipCarloetal_EcolLett_labandfield_rearing_data2014and2015This .csv file contains data from the laboratory and field experiments described in the manuscript, including embryonic mortality and development times, maximum daily temperatures, hatchling sizes and body conditions, and juvenile growth rates estimated from von Bertalanffy growth models (for a subset of laboratory-reared lizards).

The capacity to tolerate climate change often varies across ontogeny in organisms with complex life cycles. Recently developed species distribution models incorporate traits across life stages; however, these life-cycle models primarily evaluate effects of lethal change. Here, we examine impacts of recurrent sublethal warming on development and survival in ecological projections of climate change. We reared lizard embryos in the laboratory under temperature cycles that simulated contemporary conditions and warming scenarios. We also artificially warmed natural nests to mimic laboratory treatments. In both cases, recurrent sublethal warming decreased embryonic survival and hatchling sizes. Incorporating survivorship results into a mechanistic species distribution model reduced annual survival by up to 24% compared to models that did not incorporate sublethal warming. Contrary to models without sublethal effects, our model suggests that modest increases in developmental temperatures influence species ranges due to effects on survivorship.