# Lessons from movement ecology for the return to work: Modeling contacts and the spread of COVID-19 This dataset is from the paper titled "Lessons from movement ecology for the return to work: modeling contacts and the spread of COVID-19" By: Allison K. Shaw, Lauren A. White, Matthew Michalska-Smith, Elizabeth T. Borer, Meggan E. Craft, Eric W. Seabloom, Emilie Snell-Rood, Michael Travisano Published in: PLoS One Contact ashaw@umn.edu for assistance. The files included here are from the 'movement model' from the paper; please see elsewhere for files for the 'network model' from the paper. The following files are included: (1) files_runcode.zip MOVEMENT MODEL SIMULATION SCRIPTS SEIR.m: Calculate instantaneous rate of change for susceptibles (S), exposed (E), infected (I), and removed (R) in a simple SEIR model with frequency-dependent transmission dynamics. run_SEIR_spatial.m: runs simulations of a semi-spatial SIR model, tracking the number of susceptibles (S), exposed (E), infected (I), and removed (R) individuals. All individuals spend a fraction of each day (T_h) at home, a fraction (T_w) working either from home or from work and a fraction (2*T_c) commuting to and from work or at home. fig2_physicaldistancing.m: runs simulations for figure 2 (creates fig2.jpg) fig3a_run.m, fig3b_run.m, fig3c_run.m: run simulations for a number of different parameter combinations (creates fig3a_tw_theta.mat, fig3b_R0work_theta.mat, fig3c_R0work_tw.mat) fig3_plot.m: plot the resuts a number of different parameter combinations (creates fig3.jpg) MOVEMENT MODEL PRCC ANALYSIS SCRIPTS set_parameters.m sets baseline parameters set_LHSdistributions.m generates LHS distributions set_parameters_monotonicity.m sets up parameters for monotonicity check setup_LHS.m sets up LHS matrix check_LHS_distributions.m check that parameter distributions are uniform check_monotonicity_metric1.m checks monotonicity for metric 1 check_monotonicity_metric2.m checks monotonicity for metric 2 check_number_runs.m determines number of runs to use check_PRCCvals_rank.m check rank of PRCC value for significance run_analysis.m MAIN script to run LHS and PRCC analysis Downloaded from http://malthus.micro.med.umich.edu/lab/usadata/ LHS_Call.m generates sampling of all parameters PRCC.m calculates PRCC values (1) files_output.zip fig3a_tw_theta.mat: data (.mat) file, generated by fig3a_run.m, used to make fig3 fig3b_R0work_theta.mat: data (.mat) file, generated by fig3b_run.m, used to make fig3 fig3c_R0work_tw.mat: data (.mat) file, generated by fig3c_run.m, used to make fig3 output_MonoPlots1.mat: data (.mat) file, generated by check_monotonicity_metric1.m output_MonoPlots2.mat: data (.mat) file, generated by check_monotonicity_metric2.m output_numruns.mat: data (.mat) file, check_number_runs.m output_PRCC.mat: data (.mat) file, generated by run_analysis.m

Human behavior (movement, social contacts) plays a central role in the spread of pathogens like SARS-CoV-2. The rapid spread of SARS-CoV-2 was driven by global human movement, and initial lockdown measures aimed to localize movement and contact in order to slow spread. Thus, movement and contact patterns need to be explicitly considered when making reopening decisions, especially regarding return to work. Here, as a case study, we consider the initial stages of resuming research at a large research university, using approaches from movement ecology and contact network epidemiology. First, we develop a dynamical pathogen model describing movement between home and work; we show that limiting social contact, via reduced people or reduced time in the workplace are fairly equivalent strategies to slow pathogen spread. Second, we develop a model based on spatial contact patterns within a specific office and lab building on campus; we show that restricting on-campus activities to labs (rather than labs and offices) could dramatically alter (modularize) contact network structure and thus, potentially reduce pathogen spread by providing a workplace mechanism to reduce contact. Here we argue that explicitly accounting for human movement and contact behavior in the workplace can provide additional strategies to slow pathogen spread that can be used in conjunction with ongoing public health efforts.

README.txt: This text file contains readme and notes for all files.