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Население и экономика
Article . 2024 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
Data sources: Crossref
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ZENODO
Article . 2024
License: CC BY
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Pensoft
Article . 2024
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Migration nowcasting using Google Trends: cross-country application

Authors: Georgy T. Bronitsky;

Migration nowcasting using Google Trends: cross-country application

Abstract

Analysis of migration flows is crucial for understanding and forecasting social and economic trends. This paper presents an algorithm for obtaining migration estimates with minimal time delay (nowcasting) using Google Trends Index (GTI) search queries. The predictive power of the models is assessed across different periods, including one marked by the restrictions imposed due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which significantly impacted migration opportunities. The paper evaluates models for estimating migration from six different countries to Germany. The key findings are as follows: first, in periods free from external shocks, using a single search query such as «work in Germany» in the official language of the migration origin country, along with its 12-month lags in SARIMAX or distributed lag models, yields higher accuracy in migration estimates compared to SARIMA models. Second, during periods with external shocks, a multi-query distributed lag model, which incorporates additional search queries related to migration intentions, demonstrates superior predictive quality. Finally, the paper proposes an enhanced method for migration forecasting based on GTI data. It highlights the importance of using a distributed lag model, which includes multiple GTI time lags, rather than models with individual GTI lags. Models employing GTI with lags consistently show better predictive power than SARIMA models across all countries and time periods considered.

Keywords

HB1-3840, SARIMA, big data, Germany, international migration, search queries, Google Trends, Economic theory. Demography, forecasting, nowcasting

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Green
gold
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