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Drought Characterization in Croatia Using E-OBS Gridded Data

Authors: Santos, João F.; Tadic, Lidija; Portela, Maria Manuela; Espinosa, Luis Angel; Brleković, Tamara;

Drought Characterization in Croatia Using E-OBS Gridded Data

Abstract

Droughts are among the major natural hazards that are spreading to many parts of the world with huge multi-dimensional impacts. For Continental Croatia an extensive analysis of drought phenomenon is presented based on meteorological E-OBS gridded dataset (0.25° x 0.25°), within the period of 1950 to 2022. The drought events were characterized by the Standardized Precipita-tion Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) applied to different time-scales (6 and 12 months) in order to describe the subannual and annual variability of drought. The spatiotemporal patterns of drought are obtained through principal component analysis (PCA) and K-means clustering (KMC) applied to the SPEI field. An areal drought evolution analysis and the changes in the frequency of occur-rence of the periods under drought conditions were achieved by using a kernel occurrence rate es-timator (KORE). The Modified Mann-Kendall (MMK) test coupled with the Sen’s slope estimator test are applied to the SPEI series in order to quantify the drought trends throughout the country. According to drought events history and considering the different morphoclimatic characteristics of the study area the results showed that Croatia could be divided into three different and spatial-ly well-defined regions with specific temporal and spatial characteristics of droughts (Central North, Eastern and Southern regions). It is shown that there is a manifest increase in the percent-age of area affected by drought as well as in the yearly drought occurrences rates in both Central North and Eastern regions and an evident decrease in the Southern region for both 6 and 12 month SPEI time-scales. In the observation of the drought temporal characteristics, it was found that downward trends expressing increasing drought severities were strongly significant in North and Eastern regions while a few significant upward trends were seen in Southern region. From this study, it is possible to obtain a broader view of the historical behaviour of droughts in Croatia with results providing useful support for drought risk assessment and decision-making processes.

Countries
Portugal, Croatia, Croatia
Keywords

550, 551, Civil Engineering, TEHNIČKE ZNANOSTI. Građevinarstvo, Trend analysis, Climate indices, kernel occurrence rate estimator, Standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), drought regionalization, climate indices, TECHNICAL SCIENCES. Civil Engineering, standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), Tehničke znanosti, Technical Sciences, Gridded dataset, Drought regionalization, Kernel occurrence rate estimator, Građevinarstvo, gridded dataset, trend analysis

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    6
    popularity
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    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
6
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
Green
gold