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Flood insurance coverage can enhance financial resilience of households to changing flood risk caused by climate change. However, income inequalities imply that not all households can afford flood insurance. The uptake of flood insurance in voluntary markets may decline when flood risk increases as a result of climate change. This increase in flood risk may cause substantially higher risk-based insurance premiums, reduce the willingness to purchase flood insurance, and worsen problems with the unaffordability of coverage for low-income households. A socio-economic tipping-point can occur when the functioning of a formal flood insurance system is hampered by diminishing demand for coverage. In this study, we examine whether such a tipping-point can occur in Europe for current flood insurance systems under different trends in future flood risk caused by climate and socio-economic change. This analysis gives insights into regional inequalities concerning the ability to continue to use flood insurance as an instrument to adapt to changing flood risk. For this study, we adapt the “Dynamic Integrated Flood and Insurance” (DIFI) model by integrating new flood risk simulations in the model that enable examining impacts from various scenarios of climate and socio-economic change on flood insurance premiums and consumer demand. Our results show rising unaffordability and declining demand for flood insurance across scenarios towards 2080. Under a high climate change scenario, simulations show the occurrence of a socio-economic tipping-point in several regions, where insurance uptake almost disappears. A tipping-point and related inequalities in the ability to use flood insurance as an adaptation instrument can be mitigated by introducing reforms of flood insurance arrangements.
climate change; flood risk management; insurance; socio-economic tipping-point; adaptation; partial equilibrium modeling, ddc:550, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, Flood risk management, Geography, Planning and Development, Socio-economic tipping-point, Energy Engineering and Power Technology, Institut für Umweltwissenschaften und Geographie, Environmental Science (miscellaneous), Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law, Insurance, Partial equilibrium modeling, SDG 13 - Climate Action, Climate change, SDG 7 - Affordable and Clean Energy, Adaptation
climate change; flood risk management; insurance; socio-economic tipping-point; adaptation; partial equilibrium modeling, ddc:550, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, Flood risk management, Geography, Planning and Development, Socio-economic tipping-point, Energy Engineering and Power Technology, Institut für Umweltwissenschaften und Geographie, Environmental Science (miscellaneous), Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law, Insurance, Partial equilibrium modeling, SDG 13 - Climate Action, Climate change, SDG 7 - Affordable and Clean Energy, Adaptation
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| influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | Top 10% | |
| impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network. | Top 10% |
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