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The Polarization Loop: How Emotions Drive Propagation of Disinformation in Online Media—The Case of Conspiracy Theories and Extreme Right Movements in Southern Europe

Authors: Marino, Erik Bran; Baleato, Suso; Ribeiro, Ana Sofia;

The Polarization Loop: How Emotions Drive Propagation of Disinformation in Online Media—The Case of Conspiracy Theories and Extreme Right Movements in Southern Europe

Abstract

This paper examines the influence of emotions on political polarization, looking at online propagation of conspiracy thinking by extreme right movements in Southern Europe. Integrating insights from psychology, political science, media studies, and system theory, we propose the ‘polarization loop’, a causal mechanism explaining the cyclical relationship between extreme messages, emotional engagement, media amplification, and societal polarization. We illustrate the utility of the polarization loop observing the use of the Great Replacement Theory by extreme right movements in Italy, Portugal, and Spain. We suggest possible options to mitigate the negative effects of online polarization in democracy, including public oversight of algorithmic decission-making, involving social science and humanities in algorithmic design, and strengthening resilience of citizenship to prevent emotional overflow. We encourage interdisciplinary research where historical analysis can guide computational methods such as Natural Language Processing (NLP), using Large Language Models fine-tunned consistently with political science research. Provided the intimate nature of emotions, the focus of connected research should remain on structural patterns rather than individual behavior, making it explicit that results derived from this research cannot be applied as the base for decisions, automated or not, that may affect individuals.

Country
Portugal
Keywords

conspiracy, polarization, Portugal, digital, media, Social Sciences, extreme right, emotions, artificial intelligence, disinformation, H, Italy, Spain, natural language processing

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    15
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
15
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
Green
gold