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Quantifying transmission dynamics of acute hepatitis C virus infections in a heterogeneous population using sequence data

Authors: Gonché Danesh; Victor Virlogeux; Christophe Ramière; Caroline Charre; Laurent Cotte; Samuel Alizon;

Quantifying transmission dynamics of acute hepatitis C virus infections in a heterogeneous population using sequence data

Abstract

Abstract Opioid substitution and syringes exchange programs have drastically reduced hepatitis C virus (HCV) spread in France but HCV sexual transmission in men having sex with men (MSM) has recently arisen as a significant public health concern. The fact that the virus is transmitting in a heterogeneous population, with ‘new’ and ‘classical’ hosts, makes prevalence and incidence rates poorly informative. However, additional insights can be gained by analyzing virus phylogenies inferred from dated genetic sequence data. By combining a phylodynamics approach based on Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) and an original transmission model, we estimate key epidemiological parameters of an ongoing HCV epidemic among MSMs in Lyon (France). We show that this new epidemic is largely independent of the ‘classical’ HCV epidemics and that its doubling time is ten times lower (0.44 years versus 4.37 years). These results have practical implications for HCV control and illustrate the additional information provided by virus genomics in public health.

Country
France
Keywords

Male, QH301-705.5, Sexual Behavior, Hepacivirus, [SDV.BID.SPT] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Biodiversity/Systematics, Phylogenetics and taxonomy, [SDV.BID.EVO] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Biodiversity/Populations and Evolution [q-bio.PE], [SDV.EE.ECO] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment/Ecosystems, [SDV.EE.SANT] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment/Health, Humans, Biology (General), Homosexuality, Male, Epidemics, Phylogeny, [SDV.MP.VIR] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Microbiology and Parasitology/Virology, [SDV.BIBS] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Quantitative Methods [q-bio.QM], [SDV.EE.IEO] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment/Symbiosis, RC581-607, Hepatitis C, [SDE.BE] Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, [SDV.SPEE] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie, [SDV.GEN.GPO] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Genetics/Populations and Evolution [q-bio.PE], Female, [INFO.INFO-MO] Computer Science [cs]/Modeling and Simulation, France, Immunologic diseases. Allergy, Research Article

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    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
11
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
Green
gold