Workforce shortages in the health and social care sectors are a relevant issue worldwide. One measure to mitigate workforce shortages is to improve working conditions and workers’ future prospects in order to encourage worker retention. Although studies have examined factors related to organizational turnover, less is known about the factors that lead to occupational turnover intentions. Drawing upon social cognitive career theory, this study examines the reasons behind health and social care workers’ occupational turnover intentions considering emotional exhaustion as an explanatory variable. The participants were 403 health and social care workers who responded to a questionnaire about 4 years after completing their vocational education and training at the upper-secondary level. Structural equation analyses revealed that affective occupational commitment showed the highest negative correlation with occupational turnover intentions. Furthermore, the results suggest that career-related outcome expectations, wellbeing, and supportive working conditions are crucial for designing effective interventions.