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Environmental Research Letters
Article . 2025 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
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Environmental Research Letters
Article . 2025
Data sources: DOAJ
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Identifying vulnerability factors associated with heatwave mortality: a spatial statistical analysis across Europe

a spatial statistical analysis across Europe
Authors: B Sestito; L Reimann; M Mazzoleni; W J W Botzen; J C J H Aerts;

Identifying vulnerability factors associated with heatwave mortality: a spatial statistical analysis across Europe

Abstract

Abstract In recent decades, Europe has experienced severe heatwaves with significant mortality impacts. While hazard and exposure are key factors, vulnerability drivers play a crucial role in shaping these outcomes. However, few studies have examined these drivers at a continental scale. This study presents the first dynamic heat vulnerability assessment for Europe, incorporating spatial and temporal dimensions through ordinary least squares regression. Subnational (NUTS2) heatwave mortality data is used as the dependent variable, while independent variables include high-resolution raster data on heat hazard parameters, estimated population exposure, and socio-economic, demographic, and environmental vulnerability factors at both raster and subnational (NUTS2) scales. Our results (adjusted R 2 = 0.662) identify foreign citizenship and urbanization as the most influential drivers, with a 1% increase in the percentage of foreign citizens and the size of urban areas associated with a 12.1% and 7.3% rise in heatwave-related mortality, respectively. Based on these findings, we construct the European heat vulnerability index for 2000–2019 as a weighted sum of the identified drivers, using the regression coefficients as weights. The results suggest that foreign citizens may face increased heat vulnerability due to intersecting socioeconomic factors. Policy recommendations include promoting inclusive integration measures to address disparities among foreign populations, and prioritizing sustainable urban planning and nature-based solutions to enhance resilience in rapidly urbanizing areas, ensuring equitable access to green spaces.

Country
Netherlands
Related Organizations
Keywords

heatwaves, extreme heat, Science, Physics, QC1-999, Q, heat vulnerability index, vulnerability driver, Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, heat stress, Environmental sciences, heatwave mortality, GE1-350, social vulnerability, TD1-1066

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
gold