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Nature
Article
License: CC 0
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ZENODO
Article . 1992
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Nature
Article . 1992 . Peer-reviewed
License: Springer TDM
Data sources: Crossref
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Deriving global climate sensitivity from palaeoclimate reconstructions

Authors: Hoffert, Martin I.; Covey, Curt;

Deriving global climate sensitivity from palaeoclimate reconstructions

Abstract

To assess the future impact of anthropogenic greenhouse gases on global climate, we need a reliable estimate of the sensitivity of the Earth's climate to changes in radiative forcing. Climate sensitivity is conventionally defined as the equilibrium surface temperature increase for carbon dioxide doubling, ΔT2x. Uncertainties in cloud processes spread general circulation model (GCM) estimates of this parameter over the range 1.5< ΔT2x <4.5°C (refs 1, 2). An alternative to model-based estimates is in principle available from the reconstruction of past climates3–6, which implicitly includes cloud feedback. Here we retrieve the sensitivity of two palaeoclimates, one colder and one warmer than present, by independently reconstructing both the equilibrium surface tem-perature change and the radiative forcing. Our results yield ΔT2x = 2.3 ±0.9 °C. This range is comparable with estimates from GCMs and inferences from recent temperature observations and ocean models7,8. Future application of the method to additional climates in the geological record might constrain climate sensitivity enough to narrow the model uncertainties of global warming predictions.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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