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The spread of the Delta variant in Catalonia during summer 2021: Modelling and interpretation

Authors: Steinegger, Benjamin; Burgio, Giulio; Castioni, Piergiorgio; Granell, Clara; Arenas, Alex;

The spread of the Delta variant in Catalonia during summer 2021: Modelling and interpretation

Abstract

The emergence of highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variants has posed significant challenges to public health efforts worldwide. During the summer of 2021, the Delta variant (B.1.617.2) rapidly displaced the Alpha variant (B.1.1.7) in Catalonia, Spain, leading to a resurgence in infections despite ongoing vaccination campaigns. Understanding the epidemiological drivers of this outbreak is critical for refining future mitigation strategies.We employed a Bayesian age-stratified epidemiological model, incorporating vaccination status and variant-specific transmission dynamics, to analyze the outbreak in Catalonia. The model was calibrated using daily reported cases, hospitalizations, sequencing data, and vaccination coverage across age groups. We inferred contact patterns dynamically to assess their role in the epidemic resurgence and estimated the transmission advantage of the Delta variant over Alpha.Our analysis revealed that increased social interactions among younger, less vaccinated populations significantly contributed to the surge in infections. The long weekend of Sant Joan (June 23-24) coincided with a peak in contact rates, driving a rise in the reproduction number, particularly among individuals aged 20-29. We estimated that the Delta variant had a 40-60.Our findings underscore the critical role of vaccination coverage in mitigating the impact of emerging variants. The combination of increased social interactions and uneven vaccine distribution exacerbated the Delta-driven resurgence. NPIs alone proved insufficient in controlling transmission, highlighting the necessity of targeted vaccination strategies to achieve robust epidemic control. This study provides a framework for assessing future variant-specific threats and informing tailored public health interventions.

Keywords

Adult, Male, Delta variant, Vaccination Coverage, Adolescent, Human behavior, Infectious and parasitic diseases, RC109-216, Disease Outbreaks, Young Adult, Infectious disease modelling, Humans, Child, Aged, SARS-CoV-2, Vaccination, Epidemic drivers, COVID-19, Infant, Bayes Theorem, Middle Aged, Spain, Child, Preschool, Female, Epidemiological Models, Seasons, Public aspects of medicine, RA1-1270

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Green
gold