ABSTRACT The objective of the paper is to evaluate the long‐term prospects of sustainable productivity growth linked to plausible assumptions on public agricultural R&D investments as the key productivity driver. Second, it investigates the role of changing R&D focus from yield maximization to input saving technologies (fertilizers and pesticides). The projections using CGE model MAGNET identify China, India and Brazil as regions with high productivity growth from agricultural R&D while Sub‐Saharan Africa regions will struggle with low productivity growth rates and substantial increase in GHG emissions. Overall, GHG emissions are projected to grow more than agricultural output. However it is found that sustainable agricultural productivity growth could become feasible under the reorientation of R&D programs in high income countries (with use of chemical inputs declining as much as 30%) where these policies can make an important contribution to sustainability while food security concerns are limited and spillover effects in terms of higher food prices are low.