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Dynamics-informed deconvolutional neural networks for super-resolution identification of regime changes in epidemiological time series

Authors: Jose M. G. Vilar; Leonor Saiz;

Dynamics-informed deconvolutional neural networks for super-resolution identification of regime changes in epidemiological time series

Abstract

The ability to infer the timing and amplitude of perturbations in epidemiological systems from their stochastically spread low-resolution outcomes is crucial for multiple applications. However, the general problem of connecting epidemiological curves with the underlying incidence lacks the highly effective methodology present in other inverse problems, such as super-resolution and dehazing from computer vision. Here, we develop an unsupervised physics-informed convolutional neural network approach in reverse to connect death records with incidence that allows the identification of regime changes at single-day resolution. Applied to COVID-19 data with proper regularization and model-selection criteria, the approach can identify the implementation and removal of lockdowns and other nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) with 0.93-day accuracy over the time span of a year.

Keywords

FOS: Computer and information sciences, Computer Science - Machine Learning, Time Factors, Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition (cs.CV), Computer Science - Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition, Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE), COVID-19, Statistics - Applications, Social and Interdisciplinary Sciences, Machine Learning (cs.LG), Computer Science - Learning, FOS: Biological sciences, Communicable Disease Control, Humans, Applications (stat.AP), Neural Networks, Computer, Quantitative Biology - Populations and Evolution, Algorithms

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
views
OpenAIRE UsageCountsViews provided by UsageCounts
downloads
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7
Top 10%
Average
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69
54
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