This longitudinal study examined adolescent personality and social context predictors of changes in binge drinking during the transition to young adulthood. Variable- and pattern-centered approaches were used, with the latter focusing on different trajectories of binge drinking. Data came from the national Monitoring the Future project, including 6,852 youths from the 1976-1987 senior year cohorts who were surveyed at biennial intervals between ages 18 and 24. Being male, possessing low self-efficacy, and drinking primarily to get drunk were found to be unconditional adolescent risk factors for increased binge drinking over time. In contrast, other adolescent risk factors (e.g., low conventionality) were found to be conditional on initial level of binge drinking. Discussion focuses on the a priori prediction of difficulties during developmental transitions and the benefits of combining variable- and pattern-centered approaches to change.