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Journal of Flood Risk Management
Article . 2020 . Peer-reviewed
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Journal of Flood Risk Management
Article
License: CC BY NC ND
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Journal of Flood Risk Management
Article . 2020
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Comparative analysis of neural network training algorithms for the flood forecast modelling of an alluvial Himalayan river

Authors: Ruhhee Tabbussum; Abdul Qayoom Dar;

Comparative analysis of neural network training algorithms for the flood forecast modelling of an alluvial Himalayan river

Abstract

AbstractThis study aimed to develop novel flood forecasting models using artificial neural network (ANN) algorithms. The models were assessed and validated for the case study of an alluvial river in the Kashmir region of the Indian Himalayas‐River Jhelum. In September 2014, a major flood occurred in the Kashmir Valley with peak discharge exceeding 115,000 m3/s; brought about by the multifarious interaction among atmospheric disturbances. The present study targeted the development of ANN models for flood prognosis. Thereby five neural network models were developed: Bayesian regularisation neural network, the Levenberg–Marquardt neural network, conjugate gradient neural network, scaled conjugate gradient neural network, and resilient back‐propagation neural network. Levenberg–Marquardt neural network model, with the mean squared error of 0.002128 (lowest of all models) and coefficient of determination of 95.839% (highest of all models), proved to be the best model based on the statistical validation parameters. All the simulations were evaluated and curves graphed for actual versus predicted discharges for 20% of the data. These models may be used to predict floods, and take advance precautionary measures by Irrigation and Flood Control Department of the State, rather than waiting for flood hydrograph to shoot (norm as of now).

Keywords

TC530-537, artificial neural network (ANN), scaled conjugate gradient, Bayesian regularisation, Disasters and engineering, River protective works. Regulation. Flood control, Levenberg–Marquardt, TA495, conjugate gradient, resilient back‐propagation

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
35
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
gold