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Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses
Article . 2018 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
Data sources: Crossref
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Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses
Article
License: CC BY
Data sources: UnpayWall
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PubMed Central
Other literature type . 2018
Data sources: PubMed Central
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Influenza‐associated mortality determined from all‐cause mortality, Denmark 2010/11‐2016/17: The FluMOMO model

Authors: Jens Nielsen; Tyra Grove Krause; Kåre Mølbak;

Influenza‐associated mortality determined from all‐cause mortality, Denmark 2010/11‐2016/17: The FluMOMO model

Abstract

BackgroundIn temperate zones, all‐cause mortality exhibits a marked seasonality, and influenza represents a major cause of winter excess mortality. We present a statistical model, FluMOMO, which estimate influenza‐associated mortality from all‐cause mortality data and apply it to Danish data from 2010/11 to 2016/17.MethodsWe applied a multivariable time series model with all‐cause mortality as outcome, influenza activity and extreme temperatures as explanatory variables while adjusting for time trend and seasonality. Three indicators of weekly influenza activity (IA) were explored: percentage of consultations for influenza‐like illness (ILI) at primary health care, national percentage of influenza‐positive samples, and the product of ILI percentage and percentage of influenza‐positive specimens in a given week, that is, the Goldstein index.ResultsIndependent of the choice of parameter to represent influenza activity, the estimated influenza‐associated mortality showed similar patterns with the Goldstein index being the most conservative. Over the 7 winter seasons, the median influenza‐associated mortality per 100 000 population was 17.6 (range: 0.0‐36.8), 14.1 (0.3‐31.6) and 8.3 (0.0‐25.0) for the 3 indicators, respectively, for all ages.ConclusionThe FluMOMO model fitted the Danish data well and has the potential to estimate all‐cause influenza‐associated mortality in near real time and could be used as a standardised method in other countries. We recommend using the Goldstein index as the influenza activity indicator in the FluMOMO model. Further work is needed to improve the interpretation of the estimated effects.

Keywords

Adult, Aged, 80 and over, Male, Models, Statistical, Adolescent, Denmark, Infant, Newborn, Infant, Original Articles, Middle Aged, Survival Analysis, Young Adult, Child, Preschool, Influenza, Human, Humans, Female, Child, Aged

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
48
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
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gold