Abstract Settlement is one of the most important deformation characteristics of a high concrete-face rockfill dam (CFRD) and is regarded as a key indicator of dam safety. The time-dependent settlement behavior of the Shuibuya CFRD is studied on the basis of in situ settlement-monitoring records and displacement back-analysis. The goal of this work is to characterize actual deformation of the dam and to verify the back-analysis method used in this paper. The settlement-monitoring records were from seven control stations at the crest and 38 monitoring points inside the body of the dam and covered the construction period, the initial filling of the reservoir and 2 years of operation. A displacement back-analysis for parameters is performed by hybrid generic algorithms (HGAs) and finite element method (FEM). Comparative studies of monitoring data and back-analysis show good agreement between measured settlements and computed settlements. Furthermore, the deformation in the next 3 years is predicted on the basis of back-analysis. Overall, it is demonstrated that the deformation of the Shuibuya CFRD is basically stable and that the technique used to control the dam deformation is successful.